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Explaining Fluctuations in Homelessness Data

Why do some places see drops in homelessness while others see increases?

Here are some examples of the phenomenon I want to explain today:
Baltimore reported a 12% drop in overall homelessness in its 2026 count; San Diego’s East County had similarly big drops, and Los Angeles went up a lot.

Mainly, this is because of individual city policies. To return to our example, LA’s rise was tied in part to cuts to time-limited subsidies that left more than 5,000 fewer people in permanent housing. At the same time, a city like Baltimore has been one of the best cities in the country for its proactiveness in helping the people in need there. In 2025, 4,215 people were placed in permanent housing because of programs put in place by the Baltimore government in partnership with nonprofit organizations.

The reason I make this post is to tell everyone to take a good look at PIT (Point In Time) count data over time because it can be extremely useful in its ability to tell us what types of policies work, at least in certain areas.

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